TL;DR
According to the Tokyo Nihonto Market Index 2026, an NBTHK Hozon katana is listed at a median of $5,624 (Shinto) to $5,952 (Koto), a Tokubetsu Hozon katana at $9,478 to $13,902, and a Juyo katana at $31,595 to $47,392. These are asking prices from 1,625 priced listings from 25 specialist dealers in Japan, North America and Europe, collected October 2026.
Tokubetsu Hozon papers roughly double the price of Hozon at equal type and period (x2.09). Juyo multiplies it by about 8.6. On identical profiles, Western dealers ask more than Japanese dealers in 10 of 11 comparable cells, by a factor of 1.19 to 1.94. The cheapest NBTHK-papered blades are Hozon tanto and wakizashi, with medians from $2,401.
Free to cite with attribution and a link.
Two Koto katana with the same NBTHK Hozon paper are listed at a median of $4,739 by dealers in Japan and $9,189 by dealers in the West, and both prices can be honest. Until now, buyers had no public benchmark to tell which end of the market a listing sits on. Price guides quote ranges, rarely sample sizes, and never their method.
The Tokyo Nihonto Market Index 2026 is that benchmark: a documented snapshot of what specialist dealers ask, by blade type, period, papers, signature and dealer region. Every number below comes from that dataset, and the method section shows how it was built and where it falls short.
What is the Tokyo Nihonto Market Index 2026?
The Tokyo Nihonto Market Index 2026 is a dataset of 1,625 priced listings from 25 specialist dealers in Japan, North America and Europe, collected October 2026, that reports median, 25th and 75th percentile asking prices in US dollars for each combination of blade type, period and NBTHK paper level with at least 8 listings.
The sample splits into 962 listings from 11 dealers in Japan, 446 from 8 dealers in North America and 217 from 6 dealers in Europe. Only dealers that publish detailed descriptions (period, certificate, signature, blade length) were kept. Auction sites and auction results are not used, and Tokyo Nihonto's own inventory is not part of the sample. Dealers are not named: the index describes the market, not individual shops.
Asking price = the price a dealer displays on a listing. It includes the dealer's margin and any room for negotiation. It is not what a buyer finally paid, and the index never claims otherwise.
How much do nihonto cost in 2026? The full price table
According to the Tokyo Nihonto Market Index 2026, median dealer asking prices run from $2,401 for a Hozon Shinshinto tanto to $88,465 for a Juyo Koto tachi. Katana sit at $4,200 to $5,952 with Hozon papers, $7,583 to $13,902 with Tokubetsu Hozon, and $31,595 to $47,392 with Juyo papers.
The table lists every published cell: 42 of 115 possible type x period x papers combinations, which together hold 980 of the 1,210 listings whose period and papers are both known. Cells with fewer than 8 listings are not shown. P25 and P75 bracket the middle half of the listings: a quarter of the blades in a cell are listed below P25 and a quarter above P75.
| Type | Period | Papers | Median | P25 | P75 | N |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katana | Koto | Hozon | $5,952 | $4,154 | $9,581 | 50 |
| Katana | Koto | TH | $13,902 | $8,926 | $17,871 | 50 |
| Katana | Koto | Juyo | $31,595 | $24,644 | $45,180 | 31 |
| Katana | Koto | NTHK †| $9,050 | $7,650 | $11,025 | 10 |
| Katana | Shinto | Hozon | $5,624 | $3,750 | $7,296 | 32 |
| Katana | Shinto | TH | $9,478 | $6,730 | $15,221 | 96 |
| Katana | Shinto | Juyo | $47,392 | $36,650 | $51,500 | 23 |
| Katana | Shinto | NTHK | $7,400 | $5,750 | $8,800 | 21 |
| Katana | Shinto | Other body | $3,978 | $3,726 | $6,192 | 10 |
| Katana | Shinshinto | Hozon | $5,155 | $3,665 | $7,600 | 25 |
| Katana | Shinshinto | TH | $12,322 | $8,926 | $16,429 | 66 |
| Katana | Shinshinto | Juyo | $38,230 | $34,754 | $42,969 | 8 |
| Katana | Shinshinto | NTHK †| $9,000 | $7,450 | $14,850 | 10 |
| Katana | Gendaito | Hozon | $4,200 | $3,570 | $5,594 | 15 |
| Katana | Gendaito | TH | $7,583 | $5,292 | $12,480 | 12 |
| Katana | Shinsakuto | Hozon | $4,739 | $3,791 | $6,003 | 13 |
| Katana | Shinsakuto | TH | $7,583 | $7,583 | $17,693 | 9 |
| Katana | Shinsakuto | Other body | $5,150 | $4,154 | $10,031 | 14 |
| Katana | Shinsakuto | None †| $3,791 | $3,665 | $3,949 | 11 |
| Tachi | Koto | Juyo | $88,465 | $55,607 | $104,262 | 11 |
| Wakizashi | Koto | Hozon | $3,159 | $2,550 | $4,550 | 18 |
| Wakizashi | Koto | TH | $8,847 | $6,414 | $12,954 | 31 |
| Wakizashi | Koto | NTHK | $5,200 | $3,750 | $5,800 | 16 |
| Wakizashi | Shinto | Hozon | $2,907 | $2,401 | $4,107 | 41 |
| Wakizashi | Shinto | TH | $5,687 | $3,475 | $7,979 | 88 |
| Wakizashi | Shinto | NTHK | $4,200 | $3,425 | $6,100 | 15 |
| Wakizashi | Shinto | Old papers | $3,950 | $3,002 | $4,304 | 10 |
| Wakizashi | Shinto | Other body | $4,370 | $4,000 | $6,062 | 8 |
| Wakizashi | Shinto | None | $2,400 | $1,710 | $3,266 | 11 |
| Wakizashi | Shinshinto | Hozon | $3,033 | $2,800 | $3,159 | 9 |
| Wakizashi | Shinshinto | TH | $5,845 | $3,712 | $8,768 | 28 |
| Tanto | Koto | Hozon | $3,406 | $2,433 | $4,425 | 42 |
| Tanto | Koto | TH | $7,542 | $4,786 | $16,824 | 26 |
| Tanto | Koto | Old papers | $3,475 | $2,641 | $4,200 | 9 |
| Tanto | Shinto | TH | $5,055 | $3,712 | $6,968 | 10 |
| Tanto | Shinshinto | Hozon | $2,401 | $1,769 | $3,475 | 33 |
| Tanto | Shinshinto | TH | $5,371 | $3,728 | $8,989 | 19 |
| Tanto | Gendaito | Hozon | $3,033 | $2,101 | $4,336 | 11 |
| Tanto | Gendaito | TH | $4,739 | $3,475 | $7,166 | 11 |
| Tanto | Shinsakuto | None | $2,464 | $1,469 | $2,844 | 8 |
| Other (naginata, yari, etc.) | Shinto | Hozon | $1,548 | $1,469 | $1,817 | 10 |
| Other (naginata, yari, etc.) | Shinto | TH | $2,844 | $2,433 | $4,929 | 9 |
Three cells carry a dagger (†) because fewer than 3 dealers supply them: read those as one or two dealers' price lists, not as a market. NTHK listings come almost entirely from Western dealers, and Juyo listings almost entirely from Japanese dealers (81 of 85). No Tokubetsu Juyo blade in the sample carried a public price. For a plain-language overview of budget tiers, our antique katana price guide puts these figures in context.
How much do NBTHK papers add to the price?
According to the Tokyo Nihonto Market Index 2026, a Tokubetsu Hozon blade is listed at about twice the price of a Hozon blade of the same type and period (x2.09 in the regression), and a Juyo blade at about 8.6 times the Hozon price. Hozon alone barely separates a blade from one whose papers are not stated.
| Comparison (same type and period) | Ratio of medians, by cell | Regression multiplier |
|---|---|---|
| Tokubetsu Hozon vs Hozon | 1.56 to 2.80 (12 pairs) | x2.09 |
| Juyo vs Tokubetsu Hozon | 2.27 to 5.0 (katana) | n/a |
| Juyo vs Hozon | 5.3 (Koto), 7.4 (Shinshinto), 8.4 (Shinto), katana | x8.6 |
| Hozon vs unpapered or not stated | 0.58 to 1.35 (10 pairs, 6 below 1) | Explicitly unpapered: x0.63 |
The Tokubetsu Hozon premium is the most stable finding in the index. Across 12 type and period pairs with at least 8 listings on each side, it never drops below 1.56 (Gendaito tanto) and peaks at 2.80 (Koto wakizashi). Restricted to blades still for sale, the regression gives x2.08, almost identical.
Juyo is a different market. A Koto katana with Juyo papers is listed at a median of $31,595, a Shinto one at $47,392, and the Koto tachi cell at $88,465. These blades are almost all offered by dealers in Japan.
The Hozon result needs care. In 6 of 10 pairs, a Hozon blade is listed below the group of blades that are unpapered or whose papers are not stated. That group is mostly Western, where asking prices run higher (see the next section), so it is not a cheap baseline. A blade listed as explicitly unpapered, on the other hand, carries a clear discount: x0.63 against Hozon in the regression. If you want to know what each paper actually certifies, read our NBTHK certificate guide or the issuing body's own site, the Japanese Sword Museum run by the NBTHK.
Are Japanese dealers cheaper than Western dealers?
According to the Tokyo Nihonto Market Index 2026, Western specialist dealers ask more than Japanese dealers for the same blade type, period and papers in 10 of 11 comparable cells, by a factor of 1.19 to 1.94. The regression puts the Western premium at x1.39, and it holds without the largest Western dealer (x1.24).
| Cell | Japan median (N) | West median (N) | West / Japan |
|---|---|---|---|
| Katana, Koto, Hozon | $4,739 (31) | $9,189 (19) | 1.94 |
| Tanto, Koto, Hozon | $2,528 (29) | $4,600 (13) | 1.82 |
| Katana, Shinshinto, Hozon | $4,850 (16) | $7,600 (9) | 1.57 |
| Wakizashi, Shinto, Hozon | $2,844 (32) | $4,370 (9) | 1.54 |
| Katana, Shinto, Tokubetsu Hozon | $8,531 (74) | $12,520 (22) | 1.47 |
| Katana, Shinto, Hozon | $4,739 (23) | $6,724 (9) | 1.42 |
| Katana, Koto, Tokubetsu Hozon | $13,270 (40) | $17,065 (10) | 1.29 |
| Wakizashi, Shinto, Tokubetsu Hozon | $5,055 (75) | $6,000 (13) | 1.19 |
The table shows the 8 comparisons with at least 8 listings on each side. The other 3 of the 11 comparable cells have fewer than 8 Western listings and are not shown; the only cell where Western dealers ask less is one of them. The gap also holds when the analysis keeps only blades still for sale (x1.23).
Here is the trap. Compare raw medians by region and the gap disappears: a Shinto katana is listed at $8,531 in Japan against $8,200 in the West, and a Koto katana at $12,322 in Japan against $8,527 in the West. The reason is the mix. Among listings from Japanese dealers, 43% carry Tokubetsu Hozon papers and 8% Juyo, against 11% and 1% in the West. And 47% of Western listings do not state their papers at all, against 10% in Japan. Japanese dealers simply list more high-end blades. Only like-for-like comparisons tell you who is cheaper, and on those, Japan is.
Two cautions. The exchange rate matters: every price is converted at the ECB rate of 2026-10-09, so a stronger or weaker yen moves this gap. And a Western price may include services a buyer abroad would otherwise arrange separately, such as import paperwork, shipping and local after-sale contact.
From our collection
Every katana at Tokyo Nihonto is listed with its period, papers and blade length, so you can place it in the index table yourself before you ask a single question.
Browse authentic Japanese katanaDoes a signed blade cost more than a mumei blade?
According to the Tokyo Nihonto Market Index 2026, an unsigned (mumei) blade is listed lower than a comparable signed blade on average, at x0.80 in the regression,, but the gap is irregular: within matched cells the signed to mumei ratio ranges from 0.77 to 1.81, and in 2 of 7 cells mumei blades are listed higher.
| Cell | N signed / N mumei | Signed / mumei |
|---|---|---|
| Katana, Koto, Juyo | 9 / 19 | 1.81 |
| Katana, Koto, Hozon | 15 / 29 | 1.30 |
| Katana, Shinto, NTHK | 11 / 8 | 1.26 |
| Wakizashi, Koto, Tokubetsu Hozon | 18 / 11 | 1.25 |
| Katana, Koto, Tokubetsu Hozon | 21 / 24 | 1.05 |
| Tanto, Koto, Hozon | 32 / 9 | 0.90 |
| Katana, Shinshinto, Hozon | 14 / 11 | 0.77 |
Treat this section with more caution than the others. The cells are small, and the index does not see what drives the value of a mumei blade: the strength of the attribution, the school named on the paper, and whether the tang was shortened. The clearest signature premium appears at the top, in Koto Juyo katana (1.81). At Hozon level, a good mumei attribution can be listed at or above a signed blade. Our mumei nihonto buyer's guide explains how to judge one.
What does the cheapest certified nihonto cost?
According to the Tokyo Nihonto Market Index 2026, the entry point for a blade with NBTHK Hozon papers is a median asking price of $2,401 to $3,406 for a tanto or wakizashi, and $4,200 to $5,952 for a katana. A quarter of Hozon Shinto wakizashi are listed below $2,401.
| Cheapest Hozon cells | Median | N |
|---|---|---|
| Tanto, Shinshinto | $2,401 | 33 |
| Wakizashi, Shinto | $2,907 | 41 |
| Tanto, Gendaito | $3,033 | 11 |
| Wakizashi, Koto | $3,159 | 18 |
| Tanto, Koto | $3,406 | 42 |
| Katana, Gendaito | $4,200 | 15 |
| Katana, Shinto | $5,624 | 32 |
Blade type matters as much as period. At equal period, papers and dealer region, the regression prices a katana at 1.65 times a wakizashi and 1.71 times a tanto. Period matters less than most buyers expect: Koto blades carry a x1.23 premium over Shinto, Gendaito blades a x0.88 discount, and contemporary shinsakuto work sits at x1.44, which makes new blades by living smiths anything but cheap. A Hozon shinsakuto katana is listed at a median of $4,739, close to a Hozon Shinto katana at $5,624. Our period budget guide goes through what each era offers at these levels.
How much do prices vary from one dealer to another?
According to the Tokyo Nihonto Market Index 2026, the dealer you buy from moves the price as much as the papers do: among Japanese dealers with at least 8 Tokubetsu Hozon katana of the Koto or Shinto period, median asking prices range from $6,193 to $19,114, a factor of 3.1 between the cheapest and the most expensive.
Part of that spread is quality. A dealer who specialises in work by top-ranked smiths will post higher medians than a generalist, and the index does not grade polish, smith ranking or mountings. But the spread inside a single cell is wide too: across the 42 published cells, the median P75/P25 ratio is 1.88. In plain terms, the dearer quarter of comparable blades starts at almost twice the price where the cheaper quarter ends.
Length is one visible driver. Tokubetsu Hozon katana with a blade of 70 to 74 cm are listed at a median of $13,902, against $9,162 for 66 to 70 cm, a 52% premium. For Hozon katana, length makes little difference.
How was the index built? Method and limits
The Tokyo Nihonto Market Index 2026 was built from 1,625 priced listings from 25 specialist dealers in Japan, North America and Europe, collected in one day on 11 October 2026, classified by type, period, papers and signature, converted to US dollars at the ECB reference rate of 2026-10-09, and published only for cells with at least 8 listings.
Sources and collection
Dealer websites were collected automatically and politely: robots.txt respected, rate-limited requests, an identified user agent with a contact address, and an immediate stop on any refusal. Structured catalogue feeds were used where a dealer offers them; otherwise listing pages were parsed. Each record keeps the listing URL and the collection date. Listings marked "sold" were kept only when the price stayed visible on the page; they make up 31% of the sample. The index is still an index of asking prices.
What was included and excluded
Included: traditionally forged Japanese blades, mounted or in shirasaya, classified as katana, wakizashi, tanto, tachi or other (naginata, yari, ken). Excluded: listings without a price (price on request), sword fittings and koshirae sold without a blade, armour and accessories, replicas, iaito, industrial or oil-quenched blades, kogatana and blades under 15 cm, and multi-blade lots such as daisho.
Definitions
- Type: as stated by the dealer, corrected against blade length (nagasa) only in clear contradictions, using tanto under 30.3 cm, wakizashi 30.3 to 60.6 cm, katana and tachi from 60.6 cm.
- Period: Koto (before 1596), Shinto (1596 to 1780), Shinshinto (1781 to 1876), Gendaito (1876 to 1945, traditionally forged), Shinsakuto (1953 onward). A vague "Edo period" mention is classed as unknown.
- Papers: NBTHK Hozon, Tokubetsu Hozon, Juyo; NTHK; old papers (pre-reform certificates); other bodies; none; not stated. Only the blade's certificate counts, never a paper for the mountings.
- Signature: signed (including orikaeshi-mei and gaku-mei) or mumei.
Extraction and quality control
Fields were read first by rules applied to titles and specification lines, then by a language model instructed to use only what the listing states. When a rule read a value from the title or specification block, the rule wins. A manual audit of a random sample of listings, field by field, found a low error rate; the one systematic error it revealed (a dealer's misspelling of Tokubetsu Hozon) was fixed and the dataset regenerated.
Statistics
For each type x period x papers cell: median, 25th percentile, 75th percentile and N. A cell is published only if N is at least 8; 42 of 115 cells qualify, covering 980 of the 1,210 listings with known period and papers. Listings with unknown period or papers are kept out of the cells. Complementary measures: ratios of medians at equal type and period, Japan vs West matched comparisons, signed vs mumei ratios, and a regression of log price on type, period, papers, signature and region (n = 1,210, R² = 0.645).
Limits
- Asking prices are not transaction prices. They include the dealer's margin and room for negotiation. Prices actually paid are usually lower, by an unknown amount.
- Selection bias. Cheap blades and good deals sell fast and spend little time online. Price-on-request pieces, often the most expensive, are excluded. Sold listings are only visible at dealers who leave the price up.
- Weight of large dealers. The four largest dealers supply 54% of listings, and one North American dealer supplies 47% of Western listings, mostly from a sold archive without dates. Without that dealer, some medians move (Koto Hozon katana: $5,952 to $5,043), but the direction of every gap holds.
- Papers not stated. 47% of Western listings do not state a certificate, against 10% in Japan. Those listings are outside the main table.
- Unobserved quality. Polish, smith ranking and mountings are not controlled.
- Exchange rate. One ECB rate, dated 2026-10-09, is applied to every listing. Regional gaps partly reflect the level of the yen that week.
- Automated extraction. The measured error rate is low, not zero.
- One snapshot. Edition 2026-10 is a single reading. Trends over time will need repeated readings with the same method.
How to use this index when buying
The Tokyo Nihonto Market Index 2026 is most useful as a placement tool: find the cell matching a blade's type, period and papers, then check whether its asking price sits below P25, between P25 and P75, or above P75. A price outside that band is a reason to ask questions, not a verdict.
- Find the right cell. Confirm type, period and the exact paper level. Hozon and Tokubetsu Hozon sit about a factor of 2 apart, so a wrong cell gives a wrong benchmark.
- Place the price in the band. Between P25 and P75 is normal. Above P75, expect a reason: a highly ranked smith, a fresh polish, quality mountings, a long blade. Below P25, ask about condition, flaws and the paper.
- Adjust for the dealer's region. Western dealers list the same profile 1.19 to 1.94 times higher than Japanese dealers. Weigh that against shipping, export paperwork and after-sale support.
- Do not pay a Hozon premium for Hozon alone. In this index, Hozon does not reliably lift a price above a blade with unstated papers. Tokubetsu Hozon does.
- Remember it is an asking price. A listed price is a starting point. The index cannot tell you what a blade will finally sell for.
For a tanto, the cells are deep enough to be useful: Hozon Koto tanto have a middle band of $2,433 to $4,425 across 42 listings. Our tanto buyer's guide covers what to check beyond price.
Frequently asked questions
How much does an NBTHK Hozon katana cost in 2026?
According to the Tokyo Nihonto Market Index 2026, specialist dealers list Hozon katana at a median of $5,952 for Koto, $5,624 for Shinto, $5,155 for Shinshinto and $4,200 for Gendaito blades. These are asking prices from 1,625 listings collected in October 2026, not final sale prices.
Is it cheaper to buy a nihonto from a dealer in Japan?
Yes, on like-for-like blades. In the Tokyo Nihonto Market Index 2026, Western dealers ask more than Japanese dealers in 10 of 11 comparable cells, by 1.19 to 1.94 times. Raw averages hide this because Japanese dealers list far more Tokubetsu Hozon and Juyo blades.
How much more does Tokubetsu Hozon cost than Hozon?
About twice as much. The Tokyo Nihonto Market Index 2026 finds a regression multiplier of x2.09 at equal type, period, signature and region, and ratios of medians between 1.56 and 2.80 across 12 type and period pairs.
How much is a Juyo katana?
In the Tokyo Nihonto Market Index 2026, Juyo katana are listed at a median of $31,595 for Koto, $38,230 for Shinshinto and $47,392 for Shinto blades. Juyo Koto tachi reach a median of $88,465. Almost all priced Juyo listings come from dealers in Japan (81 of 85).
Are dealer asking prices the same as what collectors pay?
No. Asking prices include the dealer's margin and room for negotiation, so prices actually paid are usually lower by an amount no public data measures. The Tokyo Nihonto Market Index 2026 reports asking prices only, and says so in every table.
Can I quote the Tokyo Nihonto Market Index in an article or forum post?
Yes. The Tokyo Nihonto Market Index 2026 is free to cite with attribution and a link to this page. Please name the edition (2026-10) and mention that the figures are dealer asking prices.
How to cite this study
The Tokyo Nihonto Market Index 2026 is free to cite with attribution and a link: name the study and its edition (2026-10), say that the figures are dealer asking prices converted to US dollars, and link to this page so readers can check the method and its limits. Suggested citation:
Tokyo Nihonto Market Index 2026 (edition 2026-10). Tokyo Nihonto. Dealer asking prices for 1,625 nihonto from 25 specialist dealers, collected October 2026. https://tokyo-nihonto.com/blogs/nihonto-blog/nihonto-market-index-2026
Exchange rates: European Central Bank euro reference rates, rate date 2026-10-09.